Friday, May 10, 2013

Preemptive Strike: Iran won't go down easy.

              Having long range conventional weapons by a country as unstable as Iran is undesirable for the national interest of the United States.  Even more disconcerting, is Iran's pursuit of weapons of mass destruction in the form of Nuclear Warheads. The lack of centralization could result in irrational decisions to carry out attacks on neighboring countries and US bases in the region. Furthermore, these weapons could land in the hands of unpredictable terrorist organizations.  Peaceful attempts to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state have been ongoing since the discovery of such programs.  Once the peaceful options have been exhausted, a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is the final course of action available to
American policy makers.
           However, the preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is not as simple as it may appear.  The strike would require massive amounts of planes, missiles, and ships in order to reach the sought after underground nuclear facilities.  The multitude of considerations go beyond simply flying a pair of bombers out of Kuwait, and into Iranian air space.  The invasion of air space would cause Iran to initiate air defense systems to deny the attack.  Iran will also retaliate with its own barrage of conventional missiles on American targets.  Lastly Iran will attempt to seal the Strait of Hormuz with a swarm of small boats and other conventional weaponry, seen in the image bellow.   
  
The United States will have to commit large amounts of conventional resources to mitigate the expected Iranian mobilization.  Many air defense batteries will have to be strategically located throughout the middle east to protect American allies, and their interests from Iranian aircraft and missiles.  Large naval fleets will be required to maintain the straight open for commerce.  Lastly, fighter escorts and bombers are essential to counter Iranian fighter aircraft within Iran, destroy ADA batteries, and neutralize air bases.  
          Along with the need for hundreds of planes, ships, and missiles, are huge logistical considerations.  First, the fuel required for continued kinetic operations in Iran are substantial.  The potential disruption of oil production in the middle east would require the US to import the fuel from other locations mainly from CONUS.  Millions of Gallons of fuel are required to maintain all of the ships, planes, and ground troops. The logistical requirements for the Air Defense batteries are also important.  The troops will need a constant resupply of each class of materials.  Getting the supplies to the units will require generation of the supplies at the home front, transporting the supplies over long distances, and then using trucks and cargo planes to actually reach the batteries.  Naval fleets also require vast quantities of supplies to maintain their operations.  Specifically, the denial of their abilities to dock due to constant Iranian pressure, would highlight the need for smaller transport ships to bring supplies from the nearby docks.
           Taking all of the logistical factors into account, one can see why the decision to launch an attack on Iran has been approached with extreme caution.  The propositioned supplies and build ups would only sustain the force for a temporary amount of time.  Being able to cripple Iranian nuclear programs would require a sizable force with a great deal of time to work with.

2 comments:

  1. War with Iran is certainly a frightening prospect. Even with all of the initial logistical considerations, follow-on operations are going to require even more fuel and ammunition, food, and even medical services. This last one is especially important, as the ensuing conflict would likely lead to another occupation (no matter how short it may be), and ground forces will be necessary to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is eradicated and its facilities are dismantled. While thorough, boots on the ground increases the need for transport and sustainment, and their associated support network will lead to an exponentially complicated logistics snowball as we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan.

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    1. Oh, a Gaddafi can be made on the regime...

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