Strategic LoC and Asymetric Warfare

What is the measure of a states power?

In the past its been measured in swords and spears, horses and knights, frigates and dread naughts, artillery and machine guns, most recently its been measured in kilo and megatons of nuclear power or in some cases number of times a nation can destroy the world. Yet, all of these measures are less than accurate because what is the point of having the largest nuclear arsenal in the world if it cant be moved? For this reason I argue that the measure of a nations military power is its ability to project its forces around the world, sustain them once they are there, and redeploy them when they are finished.  Thus at the heart of the United States power has been our unchallenged control over our sea and air lines of communication-but what if this luxury becomes a contested asset again? 

To many people the thought of an air or naval power large enough to challenge even one US carrier fleet seems ridiculous, however, the rise of unmanned vehicles provides just that capability.  In a 2012 unclassified version of of GAO report on the proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles found that the number of countries with this technology had nearly doubled in less than six years, Figure 1 shows a map of countries with unmanned aerial vehicles. 

Figure 1: Proliferation of UAVs

There are two major takeaways from this figure: the first is the proliferation of drones along the coasts of some of the worlds major shipping lanes and secondly that this map and the only accounts for sophisticated unmanned vehicles NOT the type of vehicles that can be commercially bought and modified.  These strategically positioned unmanned vehicles allow governments or organizations the possibility of closing or at least severely restricting lines of communication-while granting them deniablity. 

Let me take you to a not so distant world:

A US carrier fleet is sailing through a narrow stretch of ocean when all of a sudden five or six massive explosions can be seen erupting from multiple ships. 

A CH-47 is flying across the mountains loaded with 50 soldiers when it explodes in midair.

A civilian cargo ship sailing from through the straits of Hormuz erupts in flames. 

What do all of these have in common?  Who did it? 

Besides the direct impact that attacks similar to this would have on US power what would the effect of attacks such as this be on our lines of communication? 

If we look at history for solutions we are forced back to World War Two, where we see two examples the Battle of the Atlantic with the Germans, and the suicide attack examples by the Japanese.   During the Battle of the Atlantic when Germany adopted a policy of unrestricted submarine warfare the Allies responded with convoys which prevented German submarines from attacking easy prey because they were defended by warships thus the German subs couldn't effectively engage targets without risking the loss of their own lives.  In the case of unmanned vehicles, this isn't a concern, in fact there are no human lives at stake and the craft is the weapon.  Thus we are forced to examine the impact of Kamikaze tactics on US formations during the latter half of World War Two.  In this conflict the United States formed concentric rings of fighters and ships around air craft carriers and protected them in this manner.  Yet there is a major underlying factor in this- during World War Two we knew who were fighting and where they were at (for the most part) with this new type of war where will the front be and who will it be against. 

For the last 70 years US freedom of maneuver on the seas and in the sky has been an unquestioned certainty, what effect will losing this certainty have on our ability to project power?

The US will almost certainly be forced to stretch its already stretched forces even further to defend its military lines of communication, but more importantly is the fact that a nations strength relies on its ability to pay its debts and maintain solvency which would force us to defend our trade routes as well.  As shown on Figure 2, a large number of these are forced to pass through areas where states have developed sophisticated drone technology. 

Figure 2: Density of Maritime LoC

So far I have only dealt with states (or in limited cases groups) and how they would attack our logistics lines not the effect that these attacks would have on the actual logistics plan.  As mentioned before because we have enjoyed dominance of the sea and air for so long we have come to take this as a given and do not devote many of our resources to defending these.  This allows the United States to position more of its forces forward into the combat zone-without activating reserve formations.  If the United States if forced to secure its logistics lines originating in the United States and ending at the end user as opposed to the current system where the lines are only marginally secured until they reach the theater. Adding the costs of securing supply lines from the port of origin through the theater would increase the cost of war exponentially since the units required to secure the support would have to be supported as well. 

In short, the proliferation of unmanned systems provides states and non-state actors the ability to make make conflicts exponentially more costly by attacking supply lines significantly away from the theater of conflict, which will force the United States to devote resources, that will also have to be supported, to securing these lines of communication.  Perhaps most importantly for smaller states and groups will be the ability to do so with near impunity because of anonymity. 



The Hybrid HMMWV

Until The Great War, supply trains relied on the strength pack animals to ferry an army’s soldiers and supplies over great distances.  These mules and horses pulled incredible amounts of weight over the expanses of states, nations, and empires.  However, the burden of labor placed upon these animals was taxing and not without consequence.  These animals required incredible amount of fodder every day, adding to the tonnage carried.  Mules and horses also have a breaking point and can only go so far.  The invention of the automobile seemed like it would fix this problem.  Unfortunately, the old problems remained but in a new way.  Automobiles require an immense amount of gasoline and are prone to breaking down and needing repair.  This problem plagued armies of The Great War to the war we fight now.  The vehicles our Army uses today still face these problems, especially the problem of poor gas mileage.  

FED Bravo

 

            The Secretary of Defense set out to fix this problem and funded the Army to collaborate with civilian industries to find a solution.  The goal was to develop the Fuel Efficient ground vehicle Demonstrator, commonly referred to as the FED Bravo.  This concept vehicle made its first appearance in 2012 at the Automotive Engineers World Congress and Exhibition in Detroit.  The engineers at the Army Tank Automotive Research, Development, and Engineering Center (TARDEC) are in charge of coordinating this project.  The Office of the Secretary of Defense funded the production and testing of two vehicles.  According to TARDEC, “The vehicle itself won’t go into production, but the components, technology and lessons learned will be transitioned to the current fleet and allow us to improve the future fleet. The FED vehicles were built to evaluate whether existing fuel efficiency solutions will be effective on a military platform.”  The primary objective is to improve the fuel efficiency of the Army’s Humvee, or High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV).  
 

The Army and the Department of Defense as a whole understand the vehicles in their organizations need to use less fuel and gain higher miles per gallon.  In today’s current operating environment, poor fuel efficiency may lead to decreased combat effectiveness as well as casualties on the battlefield.   According to the Secretary of the Army, approximately one out of 46 convoys experiences a casualty on refueling missions.   The Army needs more fuel efficient vehicles not only to save money but also to save lives.  Increasing the fuel mileage of vehicles will decrease the required amount of escort convoys to deliver fuel to the front lines.  Fortunately, TARDEC claims the FED Bravo “can perform the same mission as a Humvee, but with 90 percent better fuel efficiency.”  The current Humvee generates approximately 4.8 miles per gallon while the FED Bravo generates approximately 9.58 miles to the gallon.  Both statistics represent urban missions and convoy escort, or highway, driving.  The FED Bravo uses a variety of features that aid in greatly increasing the vehicles fuel efficiency.  TARDEC and ASRC Primus collaborated to create a host of features designed to increase the vehicle’s fuel efficiency.  The features include:

1. "Road-coupled parallel hybrid drive system. The front axle is powered by an electric motor, while the rear-wheel-drive is linked to a hybrid fuel-powered and electric system.
2. Ford 4.4-liter twin turbocharged V8 diesel engine, capable of producing 268 horsepower.
3. Integrated starter-generator shuts off the engine during idle time and restarts it when the driver touches the accelerator, which improves fuel economy and reduces emissions.
4. Six-speed automatic transmission coupled with an advanced lithium-ion battery with high energy and power density.
5. The full-power hydraulic brake system with antilock brakes is combined with the steering system to supply the hydraulic pressure demands for the steering, eliminating a second pump and improving efficiency.
6. Carbon ceramic brake rotors with advanced coating for durability, plus low-drag aluminum brake calipers.
7. Tubular space frame chassis for better rigidity-to-weight ratio. Combined with armored cab and V-shaped hull for protection from blasts."
   

Increasing the range and decreasing the cost of fuel will aid in strengthening and extending the Army’s lines of communication.  TARDEC explained the far-reaching implications of better fuel efficiency by stating, “The amount of effort that goes into getting every gallon of fuel to the Soldiers is tremendous, with thousands involved from Port to COP [combat outpost]. When you take that into account, that gallon of fuel is fairly expensive by the time it gets there. Better fuel efficiency will allow the military to use taxpayer dollars more wisely by being able to allocate troops and money to other missions.” 

In recent years, the use of robotics in combat have become commonplace. Whether this be some sort of droid to assist in disarming an IED or use of a Unmanned Aerial Vehicles to identify and destroy the enemy, robots have become a useful tool for the military in accomplishing their tasks and missions. In an interview with the Strategic Social Initiative at the Army Aviation Symposium in Arlington, VA, Gen. Robert Cone, head of the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, is reported to have stated: “I’ve got clear guidance to think about what if you could robotically perform some of the tasks in terms of maneuverability, in terms of the future of the force”.

Robot Mule

           As many people know, the Army is currently downsizing from 540,000 to 420,000 people by 2019, but what many people may not know is that the Army is also currently looking to downsize the size of a brigade from 4,000 to 3,000 personnel. Why is this important? This is important because the Army is downsizing in nearly every aspect, but they will still be required to perform the same level of operations as they did with the larder force. It is important to note that with the reduction in size to the Army, the caliber of soldier remaining will increase, but the personnel is still decreasing. This is to say that the soldiers remaining (in theory) will be more dedicated to the Army and will be the “cream of the crop” in military training, but this still does present a problem. If you have a high caliber soldier that that can eliminate 9 out of 10 enemy combatants before he himself is eliminated, this is effective until you encounter that 10^th soldier. In essence, it is imperative to find the balance within the ratio of numbers and expertise. This is where the robotics can be helpful.  Gen. Cole further stated that "The point is you get to keep more tooth, more folks that actually conduct operations on the ground and less supporting structure." A robot has the potential to add numbers to this ratio, while still maintaining the expertise and minimizing the cost for each combatant.

                In terms of G-T-S-R (Generate, Transport, Sustain, Redeploy), there are definite advantages that robotics bring to the table of Military Strategy and effectiveness.  As the Army moves to downsize the numbers of its personnel due to budget restrictions, robotics can play a key role in sustaining capabilities. Although the initial prices of training and integrating military robots may be greater than traditional soldiers, the cost to maintain and keep combat ready throughout a lengthy span of time will be significantly greater. Robots do not require a pay check, do not require three meals a day, do not require paid leave days, do not get sick, and do not require training days for their own benefit. 

Talon: SWORDS Robot

               The most difficult phase of the G-T-S-R cycle for the implementation of military robots as a primary means of personnel will be the generation phase. Robots of this nature are not cheap to produce in bulk as the Army will require.  The Talon: SWORDS Robot is a multi-functioning robot that the U.S. Military has already begun implementing. One drawback to this robot is that it costs a minimum of $60,000.00 (not including the weapon it is outfitted with). It would cost the DoD over 6 million dollars to bring one hundred additional Talon: SWORDS Robots into the military, which does not include sustainment or training with the soldiers manning these robots. With the DoD’s monetary capabilities reducing, it will be difficult for them to gather such large pools of money in order to purchase these robots in bulk. The generation of such robotic capabilities will be difficult.

                In addition to the Generation phase, the Sustainment phase will offer some form of resistance to the effectiveness of the implementation of robots. The cost to the DoD does not end at the Generation phase when the device is purchased. Although robots do not require a monthly paycheck, food, or sick days (as human soldiers do), they do require maintenance in order to work properly. Additionally, the robots will not function on their own, each robot will require a soldier (or team of soldiers) to operate it.

                Although the implementation of robots into the United States Military will save monetary assets in certain ways, it is important to understand that it will bring new costs along with it during the Generation and Sustainment phases. Spending money to save money may not be as successful as many military leaders anticipate. 

Rapid Equipping Force Here to Stay

Upon the arrival of the US Army in Afghanistan, Commanders recognized the need to equip soldiers and units with non-standard equipment.  In order to meet this need, the Army created the Rapid Equipping Force or REF in 2002.  REF Engineers develop systematic solutions to real-world problems faced by the American Soldier.   Their mission is to quickly met these challenges through the use of current, off-the-shelf technologies within 180 days or less.  Since its creation, the REF has brought items to the battlefield such as Water Purification Units, Unmanned Ground Vehicles, Lightweight All Terrain Vehicles, Traumatic Brain Injury and much more.  As Operation Enduring Freedom comes to its end, questions as tot he need for such a program arise.  Recently however, the future existence of the REF was confirmed by Under Secretary of the Army, Dr. Joseph W. Westphal.  This news was presented in an article on the Official Homepage of the United States Army on 31 January 2014. 

REF Soldier Load Solutions

The Under Secretary's actions signify that the Army views the need to rapidly generate material as being critical to fighting future conflicts.  In his memo, Westphal writes, "The Secretary of the Army and the Chief of Staff have determined that the capabilities afforded the Army by REF must be rendered enduring."  What makes this decision so significant for the Army of the future?

To begin the ability for a military force to generate the equipment necessary to engaging the enemy is vital to their ability to be effective in combat.  Generation is the first aspect of the G-T-S-R (Generate, Transport, Supply, Re-Deploy) Concept of Military Logistics.  It can be debated as to whether logistics drives strategy or if it adapts to meet the requirements of strategy, but regardless, an effective military strategist incorporates logistics into his or her plans.  Through the use of G-T-S-R the effectiveness of current plans as well as analysis of plans of the past can be evaluated to obtain valuable lessons for fighting the wars of the future. 

REF Minotaur in use in OEF

The REF gives the United States Army a unique advantage in terms of the Generation aspect of logistics  Additionally, it also seeks to supply the American soldiers with the tools they need to carry out their mission.  Looking back at the history of the Military Logistics, the ability to generate has the power to give a force a distinct advantage over its enemy.  During the Second World War, this was apparent with relation to the ability of the United States to out-produce Nazi Germany thus giving them a distinct advantage in the European theatre.  Additionally, in the discussion of the Normandy Invasion in Martin Van Crevald's "Supplying War", it is seen that not everything can be planned for.  In the same way the Allied Forces did not expect to have to overcome the Bocage Country of France in 1944, American forces did not expect to have to overcome IEDs in Afghanistan in 2002.  War requires a great deal of adaptability, whether that means moving through the Bocage Country of France, the Jungles of Vietnam, the Desserts of Iraq, or the Mountains of Afghanistan.  The United States Army has had the ability to adapt to these challenges in the past.  The Army of today and tomorrow will continue to turn to the REF to meet these challenges head on and ensure that the US Army has the ability to fight wherever and whenever needed. 

  

Lean Six Sigma Redeployment Ops

Operation Desert Farewell was one of the largest and most successful logistical redeployment operations in recent military history.  The process, under the leadership of LTG William Pagonis, involved two stages involving the removal of personnel, equipment, and supplies.  In short, Pagonis was able to "move mountains" by establishing an effective logistical system of accountability using precise planning and efficient systems including contractors, forward support units, and tactical and operational logistics (Log-bases).  An important innovation from this operation was the utilization of more efficient "business-like" planning and forward supporting logistical units.

Today, the US Army is witnessing a similar situation with the current draw down of forces in Afghanistan.  With the draw down, the Army is redeploying troops and equipment at the largest scale in recent history.  In particular, in the Kandahar province, 401st AFSBn is responsible for conducting as rapid and efficient a redeployment as possible. 

According to the commander of the Battalion, LTC Roy Speaks, this process will require a shift from orthodox Army doctrine.  He stated, "We can't keep making decisions using the typical Army decision making process with a logistical task of this magnitude.  It's going to make retrograding equipment out of Afghanistan harder due to the quantity of the accumulated military equipment, aggressive timeline, the related costs, and the limited transit options."

This concept consists of what is known as a Lean Six Sigma process.  This process allows for an "organization to rid its processes of non-value added requirements, such as the seven wastes--transportation, inventory, movement, waste, over production, over processing and delay."  In the end the result is  "gained efficiency, productivity, and improved flexibility to better meet the needs of the customer."

One of the programs involved is the C-17 air retrograde optimization process improvement.  This involves the rapid redeployment of vehicles (pictured above) which greatly decreases the original time of 3 to 5 months to less than 2 weeks.  This is able to occur through the utilization of the new Lean Six Sigma tactics along with the collaboration between the 971st Movement Control Team, the US Air Force, and the 401st Field Support Brigade. 

 Additionally,  military planners are using "business-like" thought processes.  One commander noted, "We can't stop thinking in the military sense, but we have to start bringing in lessons learned by the private sector."  This can be seen in the new, more efficient Lean Six Sigma concepts which involve the collaboration of forces and contracted civilian organizations. 

One can see many similarities between Operation Desert Farewell and the current draw down in Afghanistan.  The Lean Six Sigma tactics and use of contractors, forward support units, and efficient mechanisms is very similar to LTG Pagonis' concept of "moving mountains."  In short, whether dealing with time or cost in redeployment operations, efficiency is key. 

Finding Savings in the Rebalancing

A thorough inspection in progress

US Army logistics begins the implementation of the Pacific Utility and Logistics Support Enablers-Watercraft (PULSE-W) with the onset of 2014 in Japan. Currently the 10th Regional Support Group (10th RSG), along with the 7th Sustainment Brigade from Ft. Eustis, Va, are attacking the task head on. In preparation for a joint exercise with the Japan Self-Defense Force planned for January 12, 2014, these watercraft teams are gearing up to display their unique and flexible sustainment capabilities brought to the Asian pacific. Even more impressive than PULSE-W's ability to "enhance...operational capability and overall responsiveness," these crafts are estimated to cut shipping costs by more than $5 million dollars! This training exercise will be the first instance of using watercraft to support exercises within the region.

Aligning this new craft within the G-T-S-R framework, the PULSE-W implementation actively increases the transportation and sustainment components of US Army Pacific. Championing the watercraft's capabilities, Col. Bryant (commander of the 10th RSG) plans to realize the incredible cost savings by keeping the "watercraft in motion," ensuring timely transportation of supplies to streamline sustainment and limit waste. As depicted in the American Civil war and the first major utilization of Railroad systems, technological advancements bring tremendous opportunity for operational capabilities but also their own set of problems. Coordinating efforts in Japan during this training exercise will certainly teach valuable lessons for operations in the future.

Area defense of the Island Chains for China

The importance of success of this training operation goes beyond the scope of the PULSE-W, but includes National Defense implications as the US military has begun a re-balance of force to better account for threats to our nation found within the Asian Pacific.

The United States developed AirSea Battle, a strategy surround this use of Naval and Air assets in a joint effort to break potential anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) defenses, as a battle strategy unspecific for any one country but logic points obviously to China. One could hardly blame China to respond in kind as they continue to develop their military capabilities surrounded around the A2/AD principles.

Either instigating or retaliating against America, China has steadily increased their (A2/AD) capabilities through the development and acquirement of new technology. China's submarine fleet expansion, littoral (coast focused) ships, development of vertical launching capability for different classes of ships, among other developments, all point to drive up the cost of military access to unjustifiable levels for instigating countries, the main principle of A2/AD defense.


Perhaps this PULSE-W platform will prove to be a more peaceful avenue to increase our capabilities within the Asian pacific, without directly threatening a regional power.

Followers wait anxiously for after action reports on the performance of the new addition of the PULSE-W  to US Army Logistics, and the implications it may have.

US Navy's Newest Logistical Asset

Recently, David Axe, the publisher of the popular blog site, "War is Boring," has brought to light the newest addition to the United States Navy's fleet. The Maersk Cragside was built in 2011 and weighs in at approximately at 30,000 tons. At 633 feet, this converted cargo ship now is classified as an airframe carrier as well as a potential home for special operations personnel and high tech-equipment.

Axe cites some of the advantages of this "mothership," to include its ability to travel up to 8,000 miles at its maximum and to only need resupply after 45 days. The length of its trips factored in with such a high number for days without resupply will surely grant this vessel the opportunity to hold troops and become a multifaceted supply/troop carrying beneficiary.


So what does this mean? Why is a brand new ship important to anyone outside of the navy...especially us Army guys who can't stand those "goats."
 

It is simple; speed and size are huge factors in today's combat world. It is comforting to Military Sea-lift Command (MSC) to have a weapon that can travel up to 20 knots in 20 foot seas. It's speed alone coupled with the additional support of possible special operations forces make this ship its own self-functioning war machine.


This vessel will have the capabilities to hold any helicopter that the United States Military has in its arsenal to include the MH-53E ( US Navy Helicopter ). The ship also has a hangar big enough to hold two helicopters for maintenance and is equipped with new state of the art lighting systems that enables the use of night vision goggles to ensure light discipline if placed in an environment where secrecy is required.With regards to its official mission, the MSC has regret to inform the public just yet in hopes to keep the debut of this ship beneath the radar.

The Cragside has been spotted most recently in Valencia Harbor, Italy.









In regards to the G-T-S-R model, this ship bodes well for both transportation and redeployment. Its speed and size will allow troops as well as supplies to be moved from point A to point B quickly and efficiently with it's own crew being self-sufficient for up to 45 days. Its redeployment strategies will also be maximized seeing as it is classified by Axe as, " a floating air base, barracks, and headquarters all in a package that, because it looks like a cargo ship, should be able to avoid easy detection."

Early into World War I, the United States encountered a problem that was virtually new to its striving war efforts...The military had to be supplied from across an ocean! Gone were the days of supplying a force south of the Mason Dixon Line, gone were the days of simple railroad resupply, instead they had to supply a war effort that did not take place in their back yard. From New York Harbor to any of the ports on the Western Coast of France is a whopping 3, 860 or so miles! In the early 1900's that trip was one that would require more than a week or two. The struggle to resupply quickly was one major issue that logisticians faced early into the war and they were desperate for some sort of solution. I am sure some of those captains that made the long haul across the Atlantic wished that they could have navigated with the Maersk Cragside, cruising through storm-sized waves at a mind blowing 25 miles per hour.

Looking forward to the future we can use that little bit of history to foresee how this new creation could change the potential battlefield or in this case...battle ocean. The sleek yet very simple design of taking an old cargo ship that does not turn many heads leads to brand new thought. How could another country know it's true purpose? What are the capabilities of our Special Operations community with such a secretive piece of hardware. People would not see this as a carrier of war but instead a simple cargo ship floating in a port city's harbor. The Maersk Cragside brings forth the new idea of secrecy and deception, something that can help the United State's navy keep control of foreign waters if need be. Aside from its secrecy component, the ship also brings forth the idea of quicker resupply through difficult and more challenging scenarios. The fact that this ship can navigate stormy seas is a dream for those logisticians who had to cancel shipments due to dangerous storms and other weather factors. The upbringing of this ship opens up a brand new realm of transportation, resupply and redeployment.


We will look to the next few months for more details on the Cragside's actual mission and where it is going to help soldiers first.