The Hazy Future of Boeing C-17 and Cargo Planes

A recent decision to end the Boeing C-17 line, pending orders for commercial usage in the Middle East and Asia, could leave the United States with an empty position for a replacement cargo plane.  President and CEO Dennis Muilenberg of Boeing Defense Space and Security cited an environment of draw-downs and cost cutting as the reasoning behind the decision, which would retire the C-17 line after only 15 years in service.   Although the future of the C-17 will stay intact into the 2030s, the funding for the aircraft and similar CX cargo plane programs is in question. 

C-17s posing for a photo-op.

The unique challenge in designing a successful cargo plane is that a model should be able to have overlap between military and commercial applications.  The C-17’s wide cargo bay allows it to carry a large amount of supply, a feature that is desirable from both a military and commercial standpoint.  The C-17’s primary buyer was the United States Air Force, which contracted 222 C-17s in the early 1990s.  It has been used as a multi-purpose cargo plane for military applications to include moving tanks, helicopters, supplies and even soldiers of the 82^nd Airborne. However, only a few commercial versions have been sold, due largely to the cost of the aircraft ($218 million).  This steep cost has made it difficult to sell, despite a stellar working record and a technologically advanced design.   Boeing is hoping to make their next CX model more profitable on the commercial side.

The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center is tasked with finding a replacement for the C-17 and other CX aircraft, in order to “stay ahead of the curve so that new platforms are ready before existing ones retire,” according to LTG Charles Davis, military deputy for Air Force acquisition.  Currently, there is no definite selection for a replacement, and with new technologies such as scramjet on the horizon, it is possible the Air Force will hold off on making any decisions for awhile. 

Showcasing the impressive storage capacity of the C-17

 

The implications of waiting have yet to be determined, but there is a large deal of risk that the military is taking on ending the C-17 line so early.  Although the first C-17s won’t be retiring until 2030, the time window for developing a suitable replacement is rather small, and this could prove problematic. 

The propensity for the research and development phase for a new cargo aircraft to proliferate is almost a certainty, and given some recent projects such as the F-35, it is not unreasonable to think this may be the case again.  Any time there is a significant shift in technology required to do the same thing more efficiently, the amount of time dedicated to testing increases, which is another factor that should rightfully be accounted for.  When it is skipped to push out a product, the product suffers, as was the case with the F-22 which suffered from a severe lack of flight hour testing.  Lastly, while development costs might be expensive, older aircraft become increasingly expensive to maintain, such as the aging C-130s and C-5s.  Money put into developing a sustainable aircraft now will pay off when the C-17s start to retire and old planes begin to outlive their worth.  In this way, the metaphorical baton can be handed off when it is time for the replacement to take over.

 

The necessity for CX model cargo planes is absolutely certain.  Logistically, the United States depends on the rapid-deployment capabilities and range of them to perform missions that are impossible for other aircraft.  Whether preserving the C-17 line for longer or developing a new model, the United States needs to ensure it is actively pursuing one of these options in order to secure and maintain our future as a logistical airpower giant.